Nonlinear Phenomena in Complex Systems, 2023, Vol.26, No.4, pp.401

NONLINEAR PHENOMENA IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS
An Interdisciplinary Journal

2023, Vol.26, No.4, pp.401 - 412

Human Society under the COVID-19 as a Complex System: A Mean First-Passage Time Methodology

Anatolii V. Mokshin, Yana A. Shadrina, and Vladimir G. Sherputovskiy

Human society under the COVID-19 pandemic can be viewed as a complex system, the evolution of which is characterized by such the parameters as the number of newly diseased, the number of seriously ill patients, the number of those who were identified as diseased, etc. To analyze such a complex system, we propose to apply the methodology known in statistical physics as the methodology of the mean first-passage times. As will be shown, this methodology makes it possible to determine properly the so-called threshold, at which a spreading viral disease goes into an epidemic regime with accelerated progression. The efficiency of the methodology is demonstrated by the example of data analysis on the spread of the COVID-19 in the Russian Federation as well as separately in one of the regions of the Russian Federation. The methodology can serve as an additional useful tool for solving optimization problems.

Key words: complex system, mean first-passage time, infectious diseases, critical values, disease pattern

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10410229

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