Nonlinear Phenomena in Complex Systems, 2001, Vol.4, No.1, pp.47--57

NONLINEAR PHENOMENA IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS
An Interdisciplinary Journal

2001, Volume 4, Number 1, pp.47-57

Testing and Forecasting the Time Series of the Solar Activity by Singular Spectrum Analysis
A. Loskutov, I.A. Istomin, K.M. Kuzanyan, and O.L. Kotlyarov

To study and forecast the solar activity data a quite perspective method of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is proposed. As known, data of the solar activity are usually presented via the Wolf numbers associated with the effective amount of the sunspots. The advantages and disadvantages of SSA are described by its application to the series of the Wolf numbers. It is shown that the SSA method provides a sufficiently high reliability in the description of the 11-year solar cycle. Moreover, this method is appropriate for revealing longer cycles and forecasting the further solar activity during one and a half of 11-year cycle.
Key words: solar activity, singular spectrum analysis, 11-year solar cycle

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