An Interdisciplinary Journal

* 2003, Vol.6, No.1, pp.515-523*

Two models for making population forecasts are presented and
discussed. One of them is based on an analytical Gaussian solution of the
Kolmogorov-Fokker-Planck
equation and regression model for risk factor dynamics. The second is based on more general
diffusion type stochastic differential equations. Numerical schemes for
parameter estimation from longitudinal data and for forecasting are discussed for both.

*Key words: *
Random walk model, Kolmogorov-Fokker-Planck equation, stochastic
processes, demography, health forecasting

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Last updated: *April 21, 2003*