2004, Vol.7, No.2, pp.159-167
This paper is the next step in elaboration of the
nonlinear model of long term economic development. The
block of the real sector of economy was presented at the 10th
International Workshop "Nonlinear Dynamics & Complex Structures".
Currently, we have elaborated the block of financial sector, which
is the real help to assess the monetary policy impact on the real
sector in the long-run as well as monetary transmission mechanism
in the economy of Belarus. The results of simulation let us
conclude that the hypothesis of money influence on economic
development in the long-run is being confirmed. The definite
monetary transmission mechanism in economy is testified to that.
The uncertainness of long-term period does not allow evaluating
the modeling parameters for sure. That is why we consider the
probable scenarios of development using the grounds of probability
theory. The monetary policy of Belarus is inseparably linked with
the process of economic and monetary integration with Russia. We
have made an attempt to assess numerically net benefits of
monetary transition of two countries on the base of the model.
Key words: nonlinear economic dynamics, long-run forecasting, monetary transmission mechanism, long-run monetary policy
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